ANÁLISE DO PADRÃO DE CRESCIMENTO DO VALOR BRUTO DA PRODUÇÃO COTONÍCOLA NO BRASIL ENTRE 1995 E 2015: UMA APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO SHIFT-SHARE

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the pattern of upland cotton gross production value (GVP) growth between 1995 and 2015 in six of Brazil’s most relevant cotton producing states: Bahia, São Paulo, Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso and Goiás. To accomplish the analysis, shift-share methodology was employed to determine the influence of three decomposed factors that greatly affect the gross value of cotton production: area under cultivation, yield, and price. Study results suggest that this GVP growth is explained by increased productivity as Brazilian cotton producers became more focused on increasing yield through improved operational efficiency coupled with technological upgrades. The effect of changes in area under cultivation on GVP growth was unimpressive relative to the yield effect. This dynamic was the result of substitution, with a strong reduction in area under cotton cultivation in São Paulo and Paraná concurrent with the culture’s expansion in other areas, mainly in Mato Grosso. In general, the price effect had a predominantly negative role in GVP growth. This indicates that even though Brazilian cotton producers received less remuneration per unit, they were able to grow GVP through increased total production brought about by improved crop yields and efficiency.