Analysis of Interventions on Brazilian Coffee Exports Soluble to European Union in the Period 1995 to 2014

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the effect of international shocks in the soluble coffee market over the amount exported from Brazil soluble coffee to the European Union, the first quarter of 1995 to the last quarter of 2014. As analytical framework, we used the intervention analysis model for arima multivariate models. The results indicate that EU GDP is significant for Brazilian exports also identified that the 2008 crisis and the intervention of the WTO DS 154 1998 negatively affected the export performance as expected. However, the intervention with the WTO, 2000 DS209 and the exchange rate for the coffee sector conilon not behaving as expected. In general, the results showed effective for a good analysis of the behavior of Brazilian exports of soluble coffee to the European Union in the proposed period.