Real Options Theory and Economical and Financial Viability of Agribusiness Projects: the case of disregard

Abstract

This work aims to analyze the economical and financial feasibility of an agribusiness projects using the Real Options Theory. The main reason to use Real Options Theory is that this method considers two important characteristics: a) irreversibility b) the possibility to leave the investing decision. These particularities, as well as the uncertainty about the future among other similarities allows the investment opportunity considered analogous in many aspects for a financial option. For example, a company that has an irreversible investment opportunity takes an option, that is, it has the right - but not the obligation - to buy an asset (the project) in the future paying the current price (the investing). In order to apply these concepts, this work presents a case study: an agribusiness project for fruit processing that produces dehydrated fruits, pulps, juices, jams, and candies as its final products. The evaluation aims to demonstrate the value of operational flexibilities presented by this project, such as the disregard of project implementation. These flexibilities will be evaluated using the Real Options Theory, adopting the methodology proposed by Copeland & Antikarov (2001), which adds the Real Options of the project to the standard discounted cash flow method. The achieved results using the Expanded Net Present Value (ENPV), considering the real options, showed that the disregard option is not significant for the case of almost sunk investment.