Price pattern of mango exported from Brazil: 2004-2012

Abstract

Over 90% of the Brazilian mango export is originated from the Submedio River Valley São Francisco, a region that produces the fruit in every month of the year. The volume exported by Brazil has grown in recent years, and among the fruits, the mango is the one that generates the most revenue from exports. This study aims to identify and analyze the tendency components and seasonality in the prices of mango exported by Brazil with a view to better understanding of their pattern. The data used were obtained from the website AliceWeb2 of MDIC/SECEX, during the first trimester 2004 to the fourth trimester 2012. It was found that the trend shows an increasing pattern and quite significant and was detected deterministic and stochastic seasonality. Therefore, the serie was modeled by SARIMA (4,1,1)x(0,1,3)2 and the negative impact of the seasonal effect and negative semiannual and annual correlations also were observed.