Analysis of the Impacts of the Departure of the United States of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): An Analysis of the Poultry Market

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of the United States exit from the Transpacific Partnership on the poultry market. It is noteworthy that changes in the commercial structure of different countries have already been analyzed, especially on sectors in an aggregate manner. Not being checked studies that show specific sectors, the case of poultry. The methodology derives from a Spatial Equilibrium Model in the form of a Mixed Complementarity Problem, through four alternative scenarios. The first scenario assumes the formation of the TPP from the reduction of the tariff barriers, however the second scenario estimates the elimination of the tariff and non-tariff barriers. From the exit of the United States of the TPP, the third scenario simulates the reduction of tariff barriers, and forth scenario assumes the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers. The results indicate that the exit of the United States mitigates the impacts of the TPP. Based on the results, the importance of negotiating trade agreements with countries is highlighted, to guarantee expansion and access to new consumer markets.